28 Eylül 2012 Cuma

Campaign Contributions vs. Lobbying Expenses

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I keep reading news coverage about campaign contributions: how much each side is getting, who is giving the money, whether the money is going directly to candidates or to other organizations like political parties or political action committees, and so on. But when I worry about the influence of money in politics, I worry a lot more about spending on lobbying than I do about spending on campaigns.

Here's some basic data from the always-useful Open Secrets website run by the Center for Responsive Politics. The first table shows total reported spending on lobbying, year by year, although the 2012 spending is only for part of the year so far.  The second table shows total campaign spending, both for congressional and presidential races.










Here are some thoughts:


1) My guess is that a lot of spending on what I might think of as lobbying activities goes unreported: this is only spending from by registered lobbyists. Nonetheless, the amount of spending by lobbyists is consistently high, and comparable in size to campaign spending. For example, total spending on the 2010 campaign and on lobbying in 2010 were roughly similar, at about $3.5 billion. But spending on lobbying was also that high in 2009 and 2011, when there were no elections at all.

2) Spending on lobbying is much more concentrated. Open Secrets reports that the total of lobbying spending is spread over about 12,000 lobbyist in the last few years. In contrast, in the 2008 presidential campaign about 1.3 million Americans gave more than $200 to political candidates, parties, or PACs, and of that group, about 280,000 gave more than $2,300, and about 1,000 gave more than $95,000. It's true that a fairly small percentage of Americans give any money at all to political campaigns, but it's also true that the 1 million-plus individuals who do give are a much broader cross-section of society than are the lobbyists.


3) In many ways, spending on lobbying is better-targeted and less publicly clear than are campaign contributions. Lobbyists are often focused on the fine print that might be inserted in a broader piece of legislation--that exception or added provision that means so much to their employer. A campaign contribution gets spent on much more general purposes: advertising or travel costs or website maintenance or some other form of outreach to voters. In addition, Campaign contributions come from many different directions, representing many different interests. The public knows the outcome of political campaigns on Election Day, but the public never finds out about the success of many lobbying efforts, which may involve something as subtle as just leaving something out, or changing a word like "required" to a word like "recommended."

4) Some years back in the Winter 2003 issue of my own Journal of Economic Perspectives, Stephen Ansolabehere, John M. de Figueiredo and James M. Snyder Jr. asked a classic social science question, "Why is There so Little Money in U.S. Politics?" (The article is freely available on-line, like all JEP articles from the current issue back to 1994, courtesy of the American Economic Association.)  In 2012, the U.S. government will collect something like $2.5 trillion in taxes and will probably spend more than $3.5 trillion. Yet the campaign spending that shapes who will vote on these levels of taxes and spending is just $6 billion--about two-tenths of 1% of federal spending. For comparison, total sales of hair care products in the U.S. are about $7 billion per year, and sales of toothpaste are $2 billion per year. Proctor & Gamble alone spent something like $4.6 billion on advertising in 2010. It's probably not reasonable to think that a free-and-open U.S. national election in a $15 trillion economy should spend a whole lot less than what the country spends on hair care and toothpaste, or what one company spends on advertising.

Ansolabehere, Figueiredo and Snyder argue most campaign contributions, most of the time, should be viewed as a consumption good, not as an investment with an expected return. After all, most people and companies don't give anything to campaigns, which suggests that they don't think the money they give will affect the outcome. It's very hard to find evidence that campaign contributions cause politicians to vote in a way that the people of their district or state would object to: that is, politicians respond much more to their constituencies than to their campaign donors. Lots of people give money to causes they believe in, from United Way to various charities, and for the ideologically committed, political contributions often fall into the same general category.


5) I'll close by noting that concern over the effect of political contributions on election outcomes is often highly partisan. For example, I don't know a lot of Democrats who believe that President Obama's 2008 victory was noticeably tainted by his decision to break his earlier campaign pledge and become the first presidential candidate to forego matching funds so that he could vastly outspend John McCain by $745 million to $368 million (again, amounts according to the Open Secrets website). And I don't know any Republicans who have ever felt that a Republican victory was tainted by outspending the opposition.

Democracy can be in some ways a rowdy and unedifying process. But I distrust attempts by incumbent politicians to regulate the quantity or quality of spending on campaigns, which often seems to end up helping the incumbents remain in office. I'd rather rely on voters on election day to separate the wheat from the chaff. And those who want to reduce the role of money in politics might perhaps reallocate some time away from worrying about campaign contributions to encourage those incumbent politicians to restrict and publicize the efforts of lobbyists.








The Great Maple Syrup Theft: A Supply and Demand Story

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Those who teach introductory economics are always looking for a supply and demand story, preferably with a bit of a twist.Thus, my eyes lit up at the reports last week (for example, here
and here) of an enormous theft of millions of dollars of maple syrup from the St. Louis-De-Blandford maple syrup storage facility in Quebec. Apparently about  10 million pounds of maple syrup were taken: enough to fill 15,000 barrels. To understand the importance of this story, you need to know that Quebec is the Saudi Arabia of maple syrup, and the theft decreased their stock of maple syrup reserves by about one third.

 The New England Field Office of the U.S. Department of Agriculture explains developments in the maple syrup market in its "Maple Syrup 2012" newsletter from last June. In 2011, Canada produced 10.3 million gallons of maple syrup, with 9.2 million of that coming from Quebec alone. U.S. production was about 2.8 million gallons, with Vermont leading the way at 1.1 million gallons. From 2009-2011, the average price per gallon was about $37-$38.

But the 2012 maple syrup season in New England (Maine excepted) was ruined by drought. Here's the USDA description:

"The 2012 maple syrup season in New England was considered too warm. A series of heat waves in March ended the season for many, and resulted in a significant drop in maple syrup production. ...  Mild winter temperatures got the 2012 season off to an unusually early start and many maple producers were caught off guard for the first sap runs in January and February. March temperatures were highly volatile with a historic heat wave that brought summer-like temperatures in the 70s and 80s across New England. The heat wave forced early budding of maple trees, marking the end of the maple syrup season. ...The sugar content of the sap was significantly below average in New England, requiring approximately 48 gallons of sap to produce 1 gallon of syrup. ...  United States maple syrup production in 2012 totaled 1.91 million gallons, down 32 percent from 2011, and the lowest production since 2007. The number of taps was estimated at 9.77 million, 2 percent above the
2011 total of 9.58 million. Yield per tap was estimated at 0.195 gallons per tap, down 33 percent from the previous season’s yield."

One might usually expect that the drop in U.S. maple syrup production would drive up the price. However, the price of maple syrup is largely determined by the Quebec Farmers' Union. Before the theft, there was plenty of maple syrup in reserve to buffer a bad year or two. But now, instead of prices rising with a bad harvest, it's possible that prices will fall as the maple syrup thieves seek to unload their booty on unsuspecting breakfast-eaters. However, the USDA does not yet have maple syrup prices available for this year. 

Are CEO's Overpaid?

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Are CEO's Overpaid? I confess that my knee-jerk answer to this question is "YES"! But Steve Kaplan makes a strong case for a more nuanced answer in Executive Compensation and Corporate Governance in the U.S.: Perceptions, Facts and Challenges," published in July as Chicago Booth working paper 12-42. Here's a sketch of some of  his arguments and graphs.

 First, just as a matter of getting the facts straight, CEO pay relative to household income did spike back in the go-go days of the dot-com boom in the late 1990s, but since then, it is relatively lower. Kaplan argues that there are two valid ways to measure executive pay. One measure looks at actual pay received, which he argues is useful for seeing whether top executives are paid for performance. The other measure looks at "estimated" pay, which is the amount that financial pay packages would have been expected to be worth at the time were granted. This calculation requires putting a value on stock options, restricted stock grants, and the like, and estimating what these were worth at the time the pay package was given. Kaplan argues that this measure is the appropriate one for looking at what corporate boards meant to do when they agreed on a compensation package.

Here's one figure showing actual average and median pay totals for S&P 500 CEOs from 1993 to 2010. Average pay is above median pay, which tells you that there are some very high-paid execs at the top pulling up the average.  Also, average CEO pay spikes when the stock market is high, as in 2000 and around 2006 an  2007. Median realized pay seems to have crept up over time. 
Here's a figure showing estimated pay--that is, the value of the pay packages when they were granted. But this time, instead of showing dollar amounts, this graph shows average and median CEO pay as a multiple of median household income. Average pay again spikes at the time of the dot-com boom. Kaplan emphasizes that estimated CEO pay is on average lower than in 2000 and that the median hasn't risen much. My eye is drawn to the fact that median pay for CEOs goes from something like 60 times median household income back in 1993 to about 170 times median household income by 2010.

An obvious question is whether these pay levels are distinctive for CEOs, or whether they are just one manifestation of widening income inequality across a range of highly-paid occupations. Kaplan makes a solid case that it is the latter. For example, here's a graph showing the average pay of the top 0.1% of the income distribution compared with the average pay of a large company CEO.Again, the story is that CEO pay really did spike in the 1990s, but by this measure, CEO pay relative to the top 0.1% is now back to the levels common in the the 1950s.

  

Kaplan also points out that the pay of those at the top of other highly-paid occupations has grown dramatically as well, like lawyers, athletes, and hedge fund managers. Here's a figure showing the pay of top hedge fund managers relative to that of CEOs in the last decade. Kaplan writes: "The top 25 hedge fund managers as a group regularly earn more than all 500 CEOs in the S&P 500. In other words, while public company CEOs are highly paid, other groups with similar backgrounds and talents have done at least equally well over the last fifteen years to twenty years. If one uses evidence of higher CEO pay as evidence of managerial power or capture, one must also explain why the other professional groups have had a similar or even higher growth in pay. A more natural interpretation is that the market for talent has driven a meaningful portion of the increase in pay at the top."   

Kaplan also compiles evidence that CEOs of companies with better stock market performance tend to be paid more than those with poor stock market performance, and that CEOs have shorter job tenures. He writes: Turnover levels since 1998 have been higher than in work that has studied previous periods. In any given year, one out of 6 Fortune 500 CEOs lose their jobs. This compares to one out of 10 in the 1970s. CEOs can expect to be CEOs for less time than in the past. If these declines in expected CEO tenures since 1998 are factored in, the effective decline in CEO pay since then is larger than reported above."And the CEO turnover is related to poor firm stock performance ..."

To me, Kaplan makes a couple of especially persuasive points: the run-up in CEO salaries was especially extreme during the 1990s, and less  so since then (depending on how you measure it); and the run-up in CEO salaries reflects the rise in inequality across a wider swath of professions. While I believe the arguments that job tenure can be shorter for the modern CEO, especially if a company isn't performing well, it seems to me that most former CEO's don't plummet too many percentiles down the income distribution in their next job, so my sympathy for them is rather limited on that point.

In this paper, Kaplan doesn't seek to address the deeper question of why the pay for those at the very top, CEOs included, has risen so dramatically.  While the demand for skills at the very top of the income distribution is surely part of the answer, I find it hard to believe that these rewards for skill increased so sharply in the 1990s--just coincidentally during a stock market boom. It seems likely to me that
  cozy institutional arrangements for many of those at the very top of the income distribution--CEOs, hedge fund managers, lawyers, and athletes and entertainers--also plays an important role.  

Labor's Smaller Share

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Margaret Jacobson and Filippo Occhino have been investigating the fact that labor has been receiving a declining share of total economic output over the last few decades. I posted on their work last February in "Labor's Declining Share of Total Income."  Now they have written "Labor’s Declining Share of Income and Rising Inequality," which is "Economic Commentary" 2012-13 published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.


The starting point is to look at labor income relative to the size of the economy. The top line in the figure shows labor income as a share of GDP, as measured in the national income and product accounts from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The lower line in the figure shows the ratio of compensation to output for the nonfarm business sector, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The measures are not identical, nor would one expect them to be, but they show the same trend: that is, with some ups and downs as the economy has fluctuated, the labor share of income has been falling for decades, and is now at an historically low figure.

 This fact lies behind much of the rise in inequality of incomes over this time. The income that is not being earned by labor is being earned by capital--and capital income is much more concentrated than is labor income. Jacobsen and Occhino offer an intriguing figure that measures the inequality of labor income and the inequality of capital income. The measure used here is a Gini coefficient, which "ranges between 0 and 1, with 0 indicating an equal distribution of income and 1 indicating unequal income." (Here's an earlier post with an explanation of Gini coefficients.)
The figure has two main takeaways. First, labor income has become more unequally distributed over time, but since the early 1990s, the big shift in income inequality is because capital income is more unequally distributed. Second, capital income tends to rise during booms and to fall in recessions. Thus, it seems plausible that the inequality of capital income has dropped in the last few years of the Great Recession and its aftermath, but will rise again as economic growth recovers.

What has caused the long-run decline of the labor share of income? Jacobson and Occhino explain this way: "[W]e begin by looking at what determines the labor share in the long run. The main factor is the technology available to produce goods and services. In competitive markets, labor and
capital are compensated in proportion to their marginal contribution to production, so the most important factor behind the labor and capital shares is the marginal productivities of labor and capital, which are determined by technology. In fact, one important cause of the post-1980 long-run decline in the labor share was a technological change, connected with advances in information and
communication technologies, which made capital more productive relative to labor, and raised the return to capital relative to labor compensation. Other factors that have played a role in the long-run decline in the labor share are increased globalization and trade openness, as well as changes in
labor market institutions and policies."

There is no particular reason to believe that these trends will continue--or that they won't. But the declining share of income going to labor suggests the importance of finding ways to increase the marginal product of labor, especially for workers of low and medium skills, perhaps by focusing on the kind of training and networking that might help them make greater use of the advances in information and communication technology to improve their own productivity.



What's Up With the Dodd-Frank Legislation?

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Back in July 2010, President Obama signed into law the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. The difficulty with the law has always been that while it was fairly clear on its goals, it did not specify how to reach those goals--instead turning over that task to current and newly-created regulatory agencies.  If you're looking for an update on how the law is proceeding, a good starting point is the Third Quarter 2012 issue of Economic Perspectives, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which has six articles on the Dodd-Frank legislation.

Douglas D. Evanoff and William F. Moeller offer an overview of the goals and approach of the law in their opening piece (footnotes and citations omitted):

"The stated goals of the act were to provide for financial regulatory reform, to protect consumers
and investors, to put an end to too-big-to-fail, to regulate the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets, to prevent another financial crisis, and for other purposes. ... Implementation of Dodd–Frank requires the development of some 250 new regulatory rules and various mandated studies. There is also the need to introduce and staff a number of new entities (bureaus, offices, and councils) with responsibility to study, evaluate, and  promote consumer protection and financial stability. Additionally, there is a mandate for regulators to identify and increase regulatory scrutiny of systemically important institutions.  ... Two years into the implementation of the act, much has been done, but much remains to be done."

How are those rules coming along? The law firm of Davis Polk & Wardwell publishes a regular Dodd-Frank report. The September 2012 edition summarizes:

  • "As of September 4, 2012, a total of 237 Dodd-Frank rulemaking requirement deadlines have
    passed. This is 59.5% of the 398 total rulemaking requirements, and 84.6% of the 280
    rulemaking requirements with specified deadlines.
  • "Of these 237 passed deadlines, 145 (61.2%) have been missed and 92 (38.8%) have been
    met with finalized rules. Regulators have not yet released proposals for 31 of the 145 missed
    rules.
  • "Of the 398 total rulemaking requirements, 131 (32.9%) have been met with finalized rules and
    rules have been proposed that would meet 135 (33.9%) more. Rules have not yet been
    proposed to meet 132 (33.2%) rulemaking requirements.
The July 2010 Davis Polk update--the two-year anniversary of the legislation--offers some additional detail: "The two years since Dodd-Frank’s passage have seen 848 pages of statutory text expand to 8,843 pages of regulations. Already at almost a 1:10 page ratio, this staggering number represents
only 30% of required rulemaking contained within Dodd-Frank, affecting every area of the financial markets and involving over a dozen Federal agencies."

It's important to  recognize that writing a new regulation isn't as simple as, well, just writing it. Instead, there is often first an in-house study, followed by a draft regulation, which then is open to public comments, and then can revised, and eventually at some point a new regulation is created. It's not unusual for a regulation to get dozens or hundreds of detailed public comments.

This blizzard of evolving rules has to create considerable uncertainty in the financial sector. Matthew Richardson discusses the complexities of one particular issue in his contribution to the Chicago Fed publication. He picks one example: the problem that many banks made very low-quality subprime mortgage loans. What does the Dodd-Frank legislation do about this basic issue? As he describes, the act: 1) Sets up a Consumer Finance Protection Bureau in title X to deal with misleading products; 2)
Imposes particular underwriting standards for residential mortgages; 3) Requires firms performing securitization to retain at least 5 percent of the credit risk; and 4) Iincreases regulation of credit rating agencies. Each of these tasks requires detailed rulemaking. And as Richardson points out, "with all of these new provisions, the act does not even address what we at NYU Stern consider to be a primary fault for the poor quality of loans—namely, the mispriced government guarantees in the system that led to price distortions and an excessive buildup of leverage and risky credit."

I'm skeptical of anyone who has strong opinions about the Dodd-Frank legislation, because here we are more than two years later, less than halfway toward figuring out what rules the legislation will actually put in place. Wayne A. Abernethy of the American Bankers Association is one of the authors in the Chicago Fed symposium. Yes, he is speaking for the bankers' point of view. But his judgement about the overall process seems fair to me:

"At least in the financial regulatory history of the United States, there has never been anything like it. I have seen no definitive count of the number of regulations that the Dodd–Frank Act calls forth. The numbers seem to range between 250 and 400—numbers so large that they are numbing. It all defies hyperbole. The Fair and Accurate Credit Transactions Act, adopted in 2003, astonished the financial industry with more than a dozen significant new regulations to be written. ...

"One of the most common criticisms of Dodd–Frank implementation has been a lack of order and coordination in the regulatory process. Instead, the Dodd–Frank Act has succeeded in replacing the financial crisis with a regulatory crisis.  ... As agencies are grappling with impossible rulemaking tasks, most of them are also engaged in major structural reorganizations and shifts in the areas of responsibility. ... Nothing like this has ever been tried before in the history of the United States. Writing 400 financial regulations of the highest significance and the greatest complexity in a couple of years has clearly been too much to expect. ... Getting on with the work to end our self-inflicted regulatory crisis should be among the highest priorities."
 I'm someone who believes that financial regulation needed shaking up. Many of the broad goals of the Dodd-Frank legislation make sense to me: rethinking bank and regulation to deal with macroeconomic risk, not just the risk of an individual institution going broke; figuring out better ways to shut down even large financial institutions when needed; and better regulation of certain financial instruments like credit default swaps and repo agreements; a closer look at technologies that allow ultra-high-speed financial trading; and others.

The Dodd-Frank legislation is almost not a law in the conventional meaning of the term, because it mostly isn't about actual specific activities that are prohibited. Instead, it's about handing over the difficult problems to regulators and telling them to fix it. I'm not sure there was an easy alternative to this regulatory approach: the idea of Congress trying to debate, say, appropriate regulation of the over-the-counter swaps market is not an encouraging thought. But stating a goal is not the same as solving a problem. The passage of Dodd-Frank, in and of  itself, didn't solve any problems.

27 Eylül 2012 Perşembe

Payroll Jobs/Population Around the World from Gallup

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The Gallup global survey offers an intriguing take on the global labor situation by taking the share of the population with full-time payroll jobs divided by the population over the age of 15. That is, this calculation does not include self-employed, the part-time, the unemployed or those out of the labor force for whatever reason. Here's a table showing the results. Only three countries in the world have a ratio of full-time payroll employment to population above 50%: Sweden, Belarus, and Israel. The United States has a ratio of 41%. A number of countries in the world have ratios below 20%, and there are even 20 countries in the world with a ratio below 10%. The lowest five countries on this metric are Central African Republic, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Congo (Kinshasa), and Lesotho.


Here are some thoughts:


1) The share of the population with full-time payroll jobs is strongly correlated with per capita GDP. In that sense, it is a measurement of economic development. Here's a figure from Gallup. (The vertical axis shows the logarithm of per capita GDP. For those not used to thinking in logs, a per capita GDP of $400 has a log of 6; a per capita GDP of $4,000 has a log of 8.2 , and a per capita GDP of $40,000 has a log of 10.6.)

2) Those with payroll jobs view themselves as more likely to be "thriving," in Gallup's term, than others. Indeed, survey results from earlier this year suggest that for the world as a whole, the self-employed are less likely to be thriving than the unemployed.


3) There is a large difference between being "self-employed" in a developed economy like the United States vs. a less developed economy like the Central African Republic. As Gallup writes: "Not including the self-employed in Payroll to Population percentages may seem counterintuitive given the importance placed on entrepreneurship for creating jobs. However, self-employment in the developing world tends to be subsistence work and does little to help people rise out of poverty or contribute to the economic wellbeing of the country." Of course, a successful entrepreneur may start out as self-employed, but when that person hires other people to full-time jobs, their effect on the economy will show up in this measure.  But many of the low-income countries around the world just don't have many firms that act to organize and direct the efforts of labor, letting workers specialize and build up skills.
 

4) The ratio of full-time payroll jobs to population can be extremely different from the more standard measure of the labor force participation rate, which is calculated by taking all of those in the labor force, employed and unemployed, and dividing by population. I looked up World Bank statistics on the labor force participation rate for some countries with less than 10% of their over-15 population has a full-time payroll job. The labor force participation rate for the over-15 population in the Central African Republic is 79%; in Guinea, 72%;  and in Burkina Faso, 84%. For the United States, the comparable labor force participation rate is 64%. But of course, the U.S. has retirement and disability programs, along with higher incomes and longer life expectancies, which all combine to allow a larger share of its population to be out of the labor force.

5) Looking at full-time payroll jobs/population also emphasizes why it can be so problematic to have non-wage benefits like health insurance or a retirement fund delivered through a long-term employer-employee relationship. Especially in low-income economies, but also in high-income economies like the United States, many people will not have a full-time employer-employee relationship for large portions of their lives. Those of us who have been fortunate enough to have employers and jobs for most of our adult lives should recognize that many do not share our experience. Creating a fertile economic environment for employers to hire employees is an important  task here in the United States, with our prolonged high rate of unemployment, but it's even more crucial for low-income economies all around the world. 

Hat tip to Phil Izzo at the Wall Street Journal's "Real Time Economics" blog, where I first saw the Gallup survey reported.

Technological Pessimism and Too-Good-To-Check Quotations

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One of the most infamous statements of technological pessimism is often attributed to Charles Duell, head of the U.S. Patent Office back in 1898, who allegedly proposed closing up the patent office because "everything that can be invented has been invented."

But the quotation is apocryphal, as has been known for decades. Indeed, Duell gave a speech to Congress in 1899 about how America's economic future depended on innovation. However, there was apparently also an article in 1899 in the the comedy magazine Punch which was imagining a conversation where, at some point in the future, a genius asks about the patent office and a boy responds: "Everything that can be invented has been invented."

The story came to mind because the Robert J. Gordon has a working paper out called "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts Six Headwinds?" (It's National Bureau of Economic Research working paper #18315. NBER working papers aren't freely available on-line, but many academics will have access through their library systems.) Like all of Gordon's work, the main theses are genuinely thoughtful and provocative. But my eye was drawn to a paragraph about classic predictions of technological pessimism. Gordon writes:


"There are four classic examples in the past of innovation pessimism that turned out to be wildly wrong. In 1876, an internal memo at Western Union, the telegraph monopolists, said, “The telephone has too many shortcomings to be considered as a serious means of communication.” In 1927, a year before The Jazz Singer, the head of Warner Brothers said, “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” In 1943, Thomas Watson, then president of IBM, said, “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” And in 1981, in the most famous of these ill-fated quotes, Bill Gates himself said in defense of the capacity of the first floppy disks, “640 kilobytes ought to be enough for anyone.”

The paragraph has no footnotes or citations, and in fact, technology writer Kevin Maney wrote an article in USA Today back in 2005 that debunked all four of these quotations: some didn't happen, some are taken at least partially out of context.

For example, that memo from Western Union about how the telephone would never work? The quotation was real enough, but it occurred when Bell was trying to sell his telephone patents to Western Union. Instead of buying the patents, Western Union tried to start its own telephone company, and its handset actually worked fairly well. But then Bell sued for patent infringement, and drove Western Union out of the market. In short, Western Union believed in the telephone and tried to become a phone company, and statements to the contrary were positioning for a patent battle.

And that statement about "who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" Turns out that Warner Bros. was investing heavily in music, thinking that musical scores would be more important than dialog. And indeed, "The Jazz Singer" was about to be a huge hit. Even today, one can argue that for a lot of movie hits, the background of sound is more important than any specific dialog spoken by the actors.

Watson's statement about how the world needs only five computers? There is no primary source or secondary source from that time frame which reports any such comment. And if you think about it, how plausible is it that the head of a computer company would announce that his world market was a total of five sales?

Bill Gates on how 640 kilobytes ought to be enough for anyone? Gates has always denied saying this, and there's no independent source which says he did. And again, how plausible is it that the visionary  head of a company selling operating systems for computers  would state that people have near-term limits on how much computer power or memory they would need?

In the journalism business, an ultra-convenient quotation is sometimes referred to as "too good to check." I remember a Peggy Noonan column from a few years back in the Wall Street Journal that explained the concept by telling a classic Margaret Thatcher story. Noonan wrote:

"The story as I was told it is that in the early years of her prime ministership, Margaret Thatcher held a meeting with her aides and staff, all of whom were dominated by her, even awed. When it was over she invited her cabinet chiefs to join her at dinner in a nearby restaurant. They went, arrayed themselves around the table, jockeyed for her attention. A young waiter came and asked if they'd like to hear the specials. Mrs. Thatcher said, "I will have beef."

Yes, said the waiter. "And the vegetables?"

"They will have beef too."

Too good to check, as they say. It is certainly apocryphal, but I don't want it to be."

Of course, not all statements of technological pessimism are wrong. The great scientist Lord Kelvin did give a speech in 1895 declaring that "heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible."

 I've always been struck that John Stuart Mill, one of the great economists of his time, wrote in his Principles of Political Economy in 1848 that the richer countries of the world already have plenty of material wealth, andthere is little reason to desire or expect much more. Instead, the focus shouldbe on a better distribution of income and on reducing the amount of work thatis necessary. Here's Mill from Book IV, Chapter VI. I boldfaced one line in particular: 


“[T]he best state for humannature is that in which, while no one is poor, no one desires to be richer, norhas any reason to fear being thrust back by the efforts of others to pushthemselves forward. ... ”“I know not why it should be amatter of congratulation that persons who are already richer than any one needsto be, should have doubled their means of consuming things which give little orno pleasure except as representative of wealth; or that numbers of individualsshould pass over, every year, from the middle classes into a richer class, orfrom the class of occupied rich to that of the unoccupied. It is only in thebackward countries of the world that increased production is still an importantobject; in those most advanced, what is economically needed is a betterdistribution ... ““It is scarcely necessary to remarkthat a stationary condition of capital and population implies no stationarystate of human improvement. There would be as much scope as ever for all kindsof mental culture, and moral and social progress; as much room for improvingthe Art of Living, and much more likelihood of its being improved, when mindsceased to be engrossed by the art of getting on. Even the industrial arts mightbe as earnestly and as successfully cultivated, with this sole difference, thatinstead of serving no purpose but the increase of wealth, industrialimprovements would produce their legitimate effect, that of abridging labor.”
If Mill, one of the truly towering minds of his time (or any time), could fall into the error of thinking there was no particular need to increase production from the levels in 1848--when per capita GDP in the U.S. was something like 1/20 of its current level--then anyone can fall into such an error. I am no expert in predicting future growth rates, and surely there are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about the long-term growth trajectory for the U.S. economy. But I suspect that those who are alive 150 years from now will look back at the current standard of living for an average person and view it as extraordinarily and unbelievably low--much the same way that today we look back at the standard of living in 1848.